The Cowboys host their annual holiday show, and welcome the rival New York Giants to AT&T Stadium in NFL Week 12.
Dallas couldn’t have looked better in a 40-3 whipping at Minnesota last Sunday, leading the spread of this NFC East clash up. New York also has a laundry list of injuries coming this short week, contributing to moving the streak.
I split the spread and total over/under in this second of three games on Thanksgiving Day and give my best NFL picks and predictions for the Cowboys on November 24th. Goebel, Devour.
Giants vs. Cowboys are the best odds
Giants vs. Cowboys picks and predictions
Week 11 saw Dak Prescott do his best since returning from a pre-season injury that cost him first part of the schedule.
Prescott threw for 286 yards against Minnesota, completed 88% of his passes, and connected on two touchdowns—the bulk of that damage occurred on just three-quarters of the football as the Cowboys took their foot off the gas in a 40-3 win.
Prescott has been the driving force behind the Cowboys’ offense, which has accumulated 117 points over the past three games. Dak threw for just under 800 yards and seven TDs at that range, ranking 6 in many advanced QB metrics during this stretch.
He can add to that resume and his Big D legend with a solid showing on Thanksgiving Thursday. The table is set for Prescott, up against a Giants defense that sits 24th in DVOA against a pass and can drop many objects in the secondary.
New York will be without starting cornerback Adoree ‘Jackson’ while CB on the other side, Fabien Moreau, has missed practices with a rib injury. Starting free safety Dane Belton is questionable after being limited on Tuesday, as booked SS Jason Pinnock, and the secondary is still without FS Xavier McKinney.
Prescott has multiple options in the passing game, as WRs CeeDee Lamb and Michael Gallup look to be exploiting those weak spots at New York’s high school outsiders. Tight Dalton Schultz enjoyed a Duck recovery, and RB Tony Pollard quickly became one of the best double threats in the league, coming off a 109-yard, two-TD run against Minnesota.
Prescott’s passing yardage for Week 12 is at 242.5 yards. While it doesn’t look like much, a game scenario of a near double-digit spread could see a lot of deliveries and Dallas’ killing clock in the second half. On top of that, the G-Men tend to play off football, go at a methodical pace and rank among the best possession offenses on the ground.
Instead, I’d go over the 1.5 TD Total Duck drop passing at -150. He’s surpassed that total in each of the past three games, faces a depleted New York defense, and plays on the fast track inside AT&T Stadium with a total on the rise.
Prescott should get plenty of touches, too, thanks to the Dallas defense. The Cowboys rushing is among the NFL’s most disruptive passes, leading the league in sacks and ranking second in pressure average. The Giants’ offensive line is just as fraught as the secondary, with four starters pitching questionable cases in the short week.
Even when healthy, this New York pass protection has allowed QB Daniel Jones to feel the pressure on 28.9% running back – second highest in the NFL. Dallas also ranks seventh as the defense in touchdown conversions allowed, returning the ball to Prescott and the offense, who has averaged 68.7 plays in the past three games.
best bet: Dak Prescott touchdown passes over -1.5 (-150)
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Prevalence analysis of giants versus cowboys
Dallas opened up to an 8-point home chalk for Thursday’s contest and jumped quickly to -8.5 Sunday night.
Public perception of these two teams couldn’t be more opposite, with the Cowboys coming off an impressive blowing out of the Vikings on the road in Week 11 and the Giants being rolled by Detroit at home last weekend.
Adding in infection concerns for the G-Men and the overall appeal for “America’s Team” that prevalence had risen to -9.5 as of Wednesday morning. New York has several starters or doubtful in the secondary while the offensive line has four starters listed as questionable, reserves also in the air, as well as starting TE Daniel Bellinger.
The Cowboys’ rushing is among the best in the league, with the second-highest pressure-per-return rate and a league-leading 35 sacks—seven of which came against Minnesota last week. Linebacker Micah Parsons is expected to play through an ankle injury Thursday while DE DeMarcus Lawrence is listed as questionable after missing practice with a foot injury and illness.
Dallas has been a money hole over the last 11 games on Thanksgiving Day (1-10 ATS) but entered Week 12 with a 7-3 ATS record on the season. The Giants have a 7-3 identical ATS count but have failed to cover two of their last three, including a 31-18 loss to the Lions as a 3-point favorite last Sunday.
The DraftKings sportsbooks are at 58% pot count and 54% handle winning points with the Giants as of Wednesday morning. Covers compatibility shows that 52% of picks support New York on the road.
Giants vs. Cowboys Over/Under Analysis
This total/lower opened as low as 43.5 and has jumped as much as 2 points since Sunday night, to reach 45.5 on Wednesday.
The Cowboys offense was on full display in the win over Minnesota, tallying 40 points with a two-way attack on the ground and through the air. Dallas has picked up the pace on offense over the past three games, with Prescott returning to form after missing the early part of the season due to injury. The Cowboys are ranked third in the EPA per game over the past three weeks, amassing a total of 117 points in that span.
New York is not strong with points but they are very effective with football. The Giants are 10th in the EPA per game and methodically make their way down the field, putting up one of the slowest paces in the league with a game every 28.4 seconds.
However, G-Men may have to pick up the pace given the high prevalence and heightened gross. If the Cowboys follow this game script, New York will play from behind and be forced to run faster with more passes – which in turn puts the Giants at the mercy of a dangerous Dallas defense.
The New York stopout wasn’t the best, ranking 27th in DVOA, but it doesn’t allow many points due to its slow offense pace with chewing the football for possession and limiting the time opponents spend on offense. The secondary is pretty thin on the way to Thanksgiving with Jackson out, two other appetizers are listed as questionable, and the spare bodies are exploding as well.
New York is 2-7-1 over/under on the season while Dallas has a 3-6-1 O/U. These NFC East rivals have produced a 5-2-1 O/U count in their last eight head-to-head meetings.
Giants vs Cowboys betting direction to find out
While the Cowboys are only 1-10 ATS in their last 11 games on Thanksgiving Day, they own a record of 9-2 ATS in their last 11 games with the Giants. Discover more NFL betting trends Giants vs Cowboys.
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Giants vs Cowboys game information
|Site:||AT&T Stadium, Arlington, Texas|
|Date:||Thursday, November 24, 2022|
|Starting:||4:30 p.m. ET|
|Opening odds:||Cowboys -7.5, 43 O/U|
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