The Florida State Seminoles were hit hard by a three-game losing streak in the middle third of the season. They lost to Wake Forest, North Carolina State, and Clemson to be eliminated from contention in the ACC Atlantic Division race. They could have let this rough patch hijack the rest of their season, but to their credit, they’ve bounced back. Florida State won its first four games of the season before that three-game losing slide. The Seminoles created another four-game winning streak on the other side of their losing streak. They obliterated Miami and then beat Syracuse to stem their slide and give themselves a shot at a nine-win season, a clear progression measured in the past five seasons.
Florida doesn’t just win. The Seminoles play physically aggressive football. They win formally and convincingly, as opposed to winning games only because the losing team gives up the ball in the final minutes. FSU doesn’t win games cheaply. This team is taking over and showing that progress is to be expected next season.
Florida, unlike Florida, is in real trouble. The Gators just got worse as the season went on. They beat Utah in Week 1 and looked like a team with a chance to do something good this year, but they fell apart on both sides of the ball, a fact that was demonstrated in a heavy loss to Vanderbilt last week. The Gators trailed by 16 points before eventually losing by seven. They had no answers for what Vanderbilt was trying to do. When a team with Florida’s national brand name and reputation loses out to Vanderbilt, something is wrong. This team is going to try to regroup and go around the flag in this rivalry game against Florida State, but it’s just too hard to turn the switch and hope that a mediocre team can suddenly play winning football. This is not how it works normally.
Here are the NCAA football odds for Florida and Florida State, courtesy of FanDuel.
College football odds: prospects for Florida-Florida
Florida Gators: +10 (-110)
Florida State Seminoles: -10 (-110)
Over: 57.5 (-110)
Under: 57.5 (-110)
Why can Florida cover the spread?
The Gators are inconsistent and unreliable, but in one college football rivalry game, anything is possible. Wild things can happen. We already saw that on Thursday night, when underdog Mississippi State beat Ole Miss on the road, and did so after trailing by nine points in the second quarter. This was not an expected turn of events. It could be the same here. Florida, if you get a big game from quarterback Anthony Richardson, they’re a very dangerous team. One should not bet against the Gators if Richardson is at his best and gets reasonable protection from his offensive line.
Tim Capurso ·
Brendan Smith ·
Matthew Zmick ·
Why can Florida cover the spread
This is a mismatch. Florida State beats inferior opponents late in the 2022 season, while Florida State beats Vanderbilt. These two teams are going in opposite directions, and FSU has a home field in this game. Of course you will cover Florida.
Final projections for Florida, FL and pick them
It’s very simple: Florida looks like a good team and Florida doesn’t. Florida home. Don’t overcomplicate this.
Florida State final prediction and pick: Florida State -10