How low can the price of bitcoin go?

Bitcoin (BTC) has spent more than a year in a downtrend since its all-time highs of $69,000 in November 2021.

BTC price performance gives investors up to 77% losses, but how low can BTC/USD really go?

Bitcoin traders and analysts have long agreed that 2022 is the year of the largest cryptocurrency bear market.

After breaking out of all-time highs to start the year around $46,000, BTC/USD provided a bit of a relief and has since returned to levels not seen since November 2020, data from Cointelegraph Markets Pro and TradingView confirm.

This has put the pair in the bear market’s historic low zone – after losing the maximum of about 77% since the last peak, Bitcoin may have little room to run.

This time, however, it may be different. Cointelegraph takes a look at what some of the most famous cryptocurrency commentators think when it comes to where Bitcoin will land.

CryptoBullet: “Comfortable Buy” around $16,000

One popular social media personality sticks to a theory from earlier in the year 2022 – and it’s all about a certain scale on the chain.

For CryptoBullet, the days of Cumulative Value Devastating (CVDD) continue to provide essential insight into BTC’s overall price bottoms.

CVDD basically calculates the amount of “accumulated” days a coin has accumulated when it moves to a new wallet. It’s expressed as a ratio to the total age of the market, divided by 6 million, which analytics resource Woobull explains as a “calibration factor.”

Looking back in time, CVDD has acted as an important line in the sand, and if this time is no different, BTC/USD may indeed give buyers the best possible profit opportunity.

According to Woobull, a CVDD currently costs about $15,900.

“I feel comfortable buying Bitcoin here at CVDD,” CryptoBullet Tell Twitter followers on November 26.

“Could it go down? Of course it could. If another crypto company went bankrupt or something like that $BTC would drop below CVDD, but not by much. The bulk of the downtrend is over.”

Bitcoin Cumulative Value Days (CVDD) chart. Source: CryptoBullet / Twitter

Filbfilb: $6,500 “worst case scenario”

The old hand in the cryptocurrency market is re-evaluating how bad the bears bite this time around.

Filbfilb, co-founder of trading group Decentrader, recently told Cointelegraph that BTC/USD could see $10,000 in the new year if macro conditions worsen.

That was before the FTX debacle, however, and the resulting fuel added to the bear market fire made him reconsider.

In a livestream with fellow co-founder Philip Swift, Filbfilb thus identified areas of strong bid support as potential bottoms.

These are varied, however – there is a large “ladder” of bids just below the spot and focusing on $12,000-$14,000. At the same time, the final support could reach $6,000.

Filbfilb also noted that a black swan event such as more cryptocurrency bankruptcies could lead to a significant rally at the upper support area, opening up the possibility of a $10,000 or lower level after that.

He advised that a trip to the $6,000 region, however, is “unlikely” under current circumstances.

BTC/USD 1-week candlestick chart (Bitstamp) with liquidity heat map data. Source: TradingView

Many eyes are on the $14,000 prize

Filbfilb’s upper range of bid support on exchange order books is a popular target for a growing number of commentators.

Related: Will Bitcoin Price Reach $110K in 2023? 3 Reasons to Be Bullish on Bitcoin Right Now

As Cointelegraph reported, $14,000 is now a significant spot on the radar, and entries there are already being planned.

This area will also bring losses for BTC/USD against all-time highs in line with previous bear markets.

BTC/USD pullback chart against all-time highs. Source: Glassnode

Not only that, but $13,900 forms an important support line on the weekly timeframes, notes trader and analyst Rekt Capital, a line that has not been tested since the second half of 2020.

Annotated BTC/USD chart. Source: Rekt Capital / Twitter

The views, ideas and opinions expressed herein are those of the authors alone and do not necessarily reflect or represent the views and opinions of Cointelegraph.