Expert bets on Broncos vs. Panthers, more

Follow Chris Raybon on the Action App to get all the betting picks.


NFL Week 12 Odds and Picks

pluck or pluck
Tiger +2.5 (bet on Beckem)
best book
time
1 p.m. ET

Chris Raybon: The Broncos are 0-4 in real road games (their 21-17 win over Jacksonville came on neutral site). With the poor quality of their quarterback playing and coaching, Denver simply needs every advantage they can get. This is exacerbated by injuries to both sides of the ball.

On offense, the Broncos have starting left tackle Garrett Pauls (IR, leg), starting center Lloyd Cushenberry III (IR, thigh) and starting wide receivers Jerry Jeudy (ankle) and KJ Hamler (hamstring).

The loss of Bolles and Cushenberry makes things easier for Carolina’s pass rushers who have come alive for 3.0 sacks per game over the past four years. The Panthers averaged 1.4 sacks per game in their first seven games. And without Jody and Hummer, it would be easier for Carolina to take Cortlandt Sutton out with top cornerback Jesse Horn, who allowed 3.6 yards per goal and a 31.3 passer rating on 320 coverage snaps.

On defense, the Broncos are missing key contributors at every level. Border corner Ronald Darby (ACL), Nickel CB Ko, and Won Williams (knee) start on IR. Safety Caden Sterns (hip) is also on injured reserve, which proved to be a net loss because Sterns (76.7 PFF) was edging out Justin Simmons (70.0), who came back just as Stern fell.

Denver’s once-vaunted pass rusher is down to 15th in pressure rate (22.7%) and 16th in sack rate (6.8%) without Randy Gregory (IR, knee) and Bradley Chubb (dealer), who combined for 45 pressures and eight sacks .

Like PJ Walker, Sam Darnold should be an upgrade at Baker Mayfield. Mayfield simply could not play within this system, posting a league-worst 60.0% completion rate from a clean pocket. For context, Walker was 64.8% and Darnold 66.7% last season.

With Mayfield on the bench, the Panthers offense should be able to do enough to beat a Denver team that averages a league-leading 14.7 points per game and has been held to 16 points or fewer in eight of 10 contests.

The Panthers average 22.2 points in non-Mayfield starts, with at least 21 points in four of five starts. It also topped 16 points in eight of Darnold’s 11 starts last season.

According to our Action Labs data, household dogs with a total population of less than 42 are 44-29-1 (60%) ATS since 2018.

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pluck or pluck
under 43.5 (up to 41)
best book
time
1 p.m. ET

Chris Raybon: This game is set up as a defensive battle.

When the Ravens are on offense, they want to run the ball (30.4 rushing attempts per game; 7th most) and short the game (average 30.36 seconds between plays; 31st). Mike Caldwell’s defense has done well against opposing ground games, ranking 9th in rushing success rate allowed (39.3%) and 12th in expected points added per rush (-0.0184).

Even if the Ravens wanted to take advantage of Jacksonville’s 31st-ranked DVOA defense against a pass, they’d have to do so on a passing game that isn’t at its peak.

They will be without left tackle Ronnie Stanley (ankle), whose 90.0 PFF pass-blocking rate ranks second among 77 eligible tackles. They’re still without No. 1 wide receiver Rashod Pittman (IR; foot) and just lost No. 2 tight end Isaiah Leakley (ankle) — who helped make up for the Pittman loss with 18 catches, 206 yards, and 2 TDs — at least this week. The current top two wide receivers, Devin Duvernay (hamstring) and Demarcus Robinson (hip), have been listed as questionable after losing practice time this week.

The Ravens defense has taken it to another level since the acquisition of linebacker Roquan Smith and the return of edge sneaker Tyus Bowser, allowing just 16 points in two games. Baltimore should be able to handle the Jags’ mediocre offense which ranks 21st in points per game (21.6).

Opposing offenses often struggle to deal with the heat and humidity in Jacksonville, which has helped the Jaguars allow just 14 points per game at home compared to 24.8 away.

According to our Action Labs data, the lowest is 10-2 (83%) all-time in Trevor Lawrence’s home, covering an average of 8.5 points. That includes a perfect 4-0 mark this season.

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pluck or pluck
Brown +3.5 (to +3)
best book
time
1 p.m. ET

Chris Raybon: Rain and winds over 12 mph are expected in Cleveland, which favors the Browns’ DVOA-ranked fourth-ranked rushing offense.

Their biggest weakness was rushing defense (32nd in DVOA), which is the least problem against the Bucs as they ranked last in rushing yards per game (70.1) and per carry (3.1).

The Bucs have won by more than three points only four times this season, while the Browns have lost by just over three times despite a 3-7 record. The Browns have scored at least 23 points in six of 10 games while the Bucs have scored less than 23 points in nine of 10.

As I mentioned before, the underdogs by at least 3.5 with a game total of 47 or fewer are 49-22 (69%) ATS this season.

Total aside, fading out over-the-top field-goal favorites like the Bucs, who had 64% of the bets as of Saturday afternoon, is much more profitable. Dogs that get no more than half of their pot tickets go 46-19-1 (71%) ATS, according to our Action Labs data.

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QuickSlip is a Business Network feature that allows users to automatically load a bet slip into FanDuel Sportsbook.


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